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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd